Olduvai theory
The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1 in 1989. He presented it in his paper, "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000. The Olduvai theory provides a modern argument supporting the Malthusian catastrophe.
The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years.
The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge
The Industrial Civilization is defined in this paper as the time from when energy production per capita rised above 30% of its peak to when it falls below 30% of its peak. The peak occurred in 1979.
This decline is predicted to occur in three stages:
- the Olduvai slope (1979-2000)
- the Olduvai slide (2000-2012) - 'may resemble the "Great Depression" of 1929 to 1939: unemployment, breadlines, and homelessness'
- the Olduvai cliff (2012-2030) - 'I know of no precedent in human history.'
See also
- The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil production and depletion.
- Olduvai Gorge
- Great Depression
External links
- "The Peak Of World Oil Production And The Road To The Olduvai Gorge" by Richard C. Duncan (2000) (http://dieoff.org/page224.htm)
- "The Post-Petroleum Paradigm—and Population" by Walter Youngquist (1999) (http://dieoff.org/page171.htm)
- "Forecast of Oil and Gas Supply to 2050" by Jean Laherrere (2003) (http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/Petrotech090103.pdf) (PDF file)